Home Sales & Home Prices In San Luis Obispo County, CA
It was reported in my previous blog that home prices were projected to fall in eight metropolitan areas in California. Will home prices fall in San Luis Obispo County, like these areas? No one can predict for sure. However, the statistics in the following chart provide an indication.
The chart below covers nine cities and seven towns (total: 16) in San Luis Obispo county, CA. Seven rural towns are excluded due to limited comparable data. On a countywide basis, home prices showed an appreciation of about 5% in 2006 when compared to a year earlier. This overall healthy growth is welcome, except a closer look at each city or town reveals that some are subject to greater risk of falling home prices than others.
Firstly, let's study the home prices on single-family residences. These prices do not appear to fluctuate wildly in our region. Seven of the 16 cities/towns showed price appreciation. Cambria posted the lowest price increase at 1.4%, while Avila Beach enjoyed a huge jump of 71%. Considering the sluggish and huge decrease in the number of single-family home sales (-33%) and condominium sales (-51%) countywide last year, six other areas enjoyed reasonable gains : Arroyo Grande: 10.4%, Paso Robles: 6.5%, Nipomo: 5.9%, Cayucos: 5.7%, Shandon: 4.3% and San Luis Obispo: 3.7%.
Eight cities/towns experienced declining prices on single-family home sales. Templeton suffered the highest decrease @ 6%, followed by Morro Bay (-5.2%), Oceano (-3.8%), Atascadero (-2.4%), Pismo Beach (-1.6%), Los Osos (-0.5%),and lastly, Grover Beach (-0.1%). There's no applicable single-family home sales in San Simeon, so the town is not included in this analysis. These price declines are very "bearable", when we account the double-digit growth experienced by many areas in the county in the past five years. For example, the price drop of 5.2% in Morro Bay does not negate the 24% increase in price appreciation enjoyed by the city in 2004.
Condominium sales are few in our region, and not a good indication for price comparison. Nonetheless, in 2006, nine places saw price declines on condo sales, starting from a negligible 0.1% in Nipomo to a high 36.4% in Avila Beach. The other six are: Grover Beach (-3.2%), Paso Robles (-6.4%), San Simeon (-7.7%), Oceano (-9.3%), Los Osos (-9.6%), Cayucos (-18.6%), and Templeton (-26.4%). Cambria and Shandon do not have applicable data for this comparison, and are excluded. Only five areas saw price increases : Arroyo Grande: 3%, San Luis Obispo: 6.9%, Atascadero: 8.5%, Pismo Beach: 15.8%, Morro Bay: 26.1%.
I am of the opinion that demand for the desirable neighborhoods in coastal towns such as Avila Beach, Cambria, and Cayucos will continue to grow and exceed supply, thus upholding prices in these areas. Cities such as Arroyo Grande and Paso Robles are experiencing expansion and growth. This in turn spurs demand for housing. San Luis Obispo will always remain desirable as the metropolitan area in SLO county. The presence of many local entrepreneurs and businesses, plus a state university will sustain demand for housing. I do not anticipate falling prices in these areas. There is a likelihood that prices may decline further this year in cities/towns such as Los Osos ('plagued' by the sewer moratorium issues), Grover Beach and Oceano, though hopefully, not at an alarming rate. Overall, the Central Coast region has lots to offer : beautiful natural environment, clean air, safer cities, great schools, arts & crafts, the great outdoors, wineries and much more. These qualities and the growth cap are just two of the variables that will help to generate demand and propel home prices in the long run.
Should you like to receive data on home sales in specific neighborhoods, or a review of the price trends for the past 5-10 years, please call or email me,
| REVIEW OF HOME PRICES & HOME SALES IN SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, CA |
| | | | | | | | |
| NO. OF HOMES SOLD | MEDIAN SALES PRICE |
| 2005 | 2006 | 2006/ | % | 2005 | 2006 | 2006/2005 | % |
| SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY | | | 2005 | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 4526 | 3043 | -1483 | -32.8% | $534,000.00 | $559,000.00 | $25,000.00 | 4.7% |
| Condos | 447 | 218 | -229 | -51.2% | $375,000.00 | $393,750.00 | $18,750.00 | 5.0% |
| | | | | | | | |
| -CITY OF SAN LUIS OBISPO | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 399 | 309 | -90 | -22.6% | $670,000.00 | $695,000.00 | $25,000.00 | 3.7% |
| Condos | 144 | 92 | -52 | -36.1% | $435,000.00 | $465,000.00 | $30,000.00 | 6.9% |
| | | | | | | | |
| NORTH COAST | | | | | | | | |
| -CAMBRIA | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 181 | 132 | -49 | -27.1% | $699,000.00 | $708,500.00 | $9,500.00 | 1.4% |
| Condos | 1 | 0 | | | $500,000.00 | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| -CAYUCOS | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 48 | 31 | -17 | -35.4% | $898,500.00 | $950,000.00 | $51,500.00 | 5.7% |
| Condos | 4 | 2 | -2 | -50.0% | $762,000.00 | $620,000.00 | ($142,000.00) | -18.6% |
| | | | | | | | |
| -LOS OSOS | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 210 | 155 | -55 | -26.2% | $517,500.00 | $515,000.00 | ($2,500.00) | -0.5% |
| Condos | 8 | 7 | -1 | -12.5% | $260,000.00 | $235,000.00 | ($25,000.00) | -9.6% |
| | | | | | | | |
| -MORRO BAY | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 130 | 111 | -19 | -14.6% | $645,000.00 | $611,500.00 | ($33,500.00) | -5.2% |
| Condos | 21 | 6 | -15 | -71.4% | $491,000.00 | $619,000.00 | $128,000.00 | 26.1% |
| | | | | | | | |
| -SAN SIMEON | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | N/A | N/A | N/A | | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Condos | 10 | 1 | -9 | -90.0% | $497,500.00 | $459,000.00 | ($38,500.00) | -7.7% |
| | | | | | | | |
| SOUTH COUNTY | | | | | | | | |
| -AVILA BEACH | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 22 | 8 | -14 | -63.6% | $823,750.00 | $1,409,000.00 | $585,250.00 | 71.0% |
| Condos | 8 | 6 | -2 | -25.0% | $1,137,500.00 | $722,500.00 | ($415,000.00) | -36.5% |
| | | | | | | | |
| -ARROYO GRANDE | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 349 | 325 | -24 | -6.9% | $675,000.00 | $745,000.00 | $70,000.00 | 10.4% |
| Condos | 55 | 22 | -33 | -60.0% | $375,000.00 | $386,088.00 | $11,088.00 | 3.0% |
| | | | | | | | |
| -GROVER BEACH | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 172 | 107 | -65 | -37.8% | $500,450.00 | $500,000.00 | ($450.00) | -0.1% |
| Condos | 34 | 39 | 5 | 14.7% | $396,500.00 | $384,000.00 | ($12,500.00) | -3.2% |
| | | | | | | | |
| -PISMO BEACH | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 121 | 88 | -33 | -27.3% | $805,000.00 | $792,000.00 | ($13,000.00) | -1.6% |
| Condos | 20 | 27 | 7 | 35.0% | $569,950.00 | $660,000.00 | $90,050.00 | 15.8% |
| | | | | | | | |
| -NIPOMO | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 212 | 164 | -48 | -22.6% | $599,996.00 | $635,500.00 | $35,504.00 | 5.9% |
| Condos | 28 | 28 | 0 | 0.0% | $391,200.00 | $390,950.00 | ($250.00) | -0.1% |
| | | | | | | | |
| -OCEANO | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 50 | 52 | 2 | 4.0% | $456,960.00 | $439,500.00 | ($17,460.00) | -3.8% |
| Condos | 23 | 15 | -8 | -34.8% | $345,000.00 | $313,000.00 | ($32,000.00) | -9.3% |
| | | | | | | | |
| NORTH COUNTY | | | | | | | | |
| -ATASCADERO | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 411 | 328 | -83 | -20.2% | $515,000.00 | $502,500.00 | ($12,500.00) | -2.4% |
| Condos | 65 | 54 | -11 | -16.9% | $289,900.00 | $314,500.00 | $24,600.00 | 8.5% |
| | | | | | | | |
| -PASO ROBLES | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 802 | 567 | -235 | -29.3% | $460,000.00 | $490,000.00 | $30,000.00 | 6.5% |
| Condos | 46 | 22 | -24 | -52.2% | $318,339.00 | $298,000.00 | ($20,339.00) | -6.4% |
| | | | | | | | |
| -TEMPLETON | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 108 | 101 | -7 | -6.5% | $665,000.00 | $625,000.00 | ($40,000.00) | -6.0% |
| Condos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | $415,000.00 | $305,000.00 | ($110,000.00) | -26.5% |
| | | | | | | | |
| -SHANDON | | | | | | | | |
| Single Family Residence | 27 | 12 | -15 | -55.6% | $325,000.00 | $339,000.00 | $14,000.00 | 4.3% |
| Condos | 0 | 0 | 0 | | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 0 |
| | | | | | | | |
| (i) Bradley, Cholame, Creston, Cuyama, Harmony, San Miguel, Santa Margarita are excluded in this study. |
| (ii) Courtesy of Sherry Sim, SRES, E-Pro, Coldwell Banker Liberty Realty, Cayucos, CA |
(iii) Data compiled from Central Coast MLS: deemed accurate but not guaranteed as of Jan 28, 2007. |
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